The
primary responsibility of the Consultant will be to obtain and analyze armed conflict
data and GEF project/program data [and other information as appropriate] to
develop insights into the relationship between these variables at different
scales of analysis. The Consultant will
use the results of the analyses to draw conclusions regarding GEF interventions
and conflict/peace using a three-tiered approach starting from the global/national
level to GEF-supported projects related primarily to biodiversity and land
degradation, and then focusing on several key projects identified through the
previous two tasks for a more in-depth analysis across these and potentially
other focal areas such as International Waters.
Specific Tasks and
Responsibilities
The Consultant
will undertake the tasks outlined below:
Tier One – Global/National
Level Analysis
The
first tier will focus on all GEF Recipient Countries. The Consultant should seek to answer the
following questions using spatially explicit data and methods:
- In
which GEF recipient countries has conflict occurred since the inception of the
GEF (1991) to present? Break down results by a) type of conflict, length of
conflict, etc.). Include the number of specific incidents but also single
protracted conflicts (e.g. FARC vs. government in Columbia as one conflict
comprised of many separate incidences) to develop view graphs and associated
conclusions describing this relationship and to classify countries by conflict based
on descriptive summary statistics (e.g. count, max – min).
- Using
hot spot– type spatial analysis, determine if there are places in GEF-recipient
countries where conflicts tend to be concentrated. Where are the ‘conflict hot
spots?’ Where [which countries and regions] do we find higher than expected number
of conflicts? What are the characteristics of these conflicts based on descriptive
summary statistics contained within the conflict database?
- Using
publically available data from the World
Bank Development Indicators, determine what are the macro-indicators
associated with conflict in GEF-funded countries (or a subset of countries
based on results from task no. 2 above). Which of the factors relevant to GEF
programming (e.g. urbanization, access to electricity, agricultural land,
annual freshwater withdrawals, CO2 emissions, etc.) correlate to
incidents of armed conflict?
Key deliverable(s): Charts/tables/graphs
depicting a) location of conflicts in GEF-supported countries over time and by
GEF period (GEF 1 – GEF 6). Show the relationship
between where GEF operates [and concentrates financial resources, if possible]
vs. where conflicts are concentrated to examine trends over time and space. Develop
graphs depicting a time series distribution over each successive GEF
replenishment period indicating project count vs. conflict count, project
amount vs. conflict amount, etc.
Show
results of the regression analysis comparing macro-level variables to conflict
incidents to see if correlations exist. Describe in detail what, if any,
conclusions can be drawn regarding the presence of armed conflict and other key
variables in a time series.
Tier Two – GEF- Supported Projects
related to Land Degradation and Biodiversity
The
second tier of the analysis will focus on GEF projects primarily related to
biodiversity conservation (e.g. protected areas). Using datasets developed by
the GEF Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) and GEF Implementing Agencies, the
Consultant will undertake the following analysis:
- Use
spatial data of GEF-supported projects (~1800
locations) to determine the location of each project in relation to
armed conflicts, making sure that the time periods are appropriately
synchronized. Use spatial tools to determine the average distance between GEF
projects and conflict incidences and develop graphs/charts to show conclusions.
- Overlay
conflict data and match conflict dates with project dates to determine total
number and percentage of incidents occurring a) within the PA; b) within 5 km
of PA; within 10 km of PA that occurred
during the GEF project period. By
examining the description of the conflict estimate the number of total
conflicts (e.g. several incidents could occur over a 5 year period; however,
they could all be identified under one larger description such as FARC vs.
Columbian government). Create a table
(see example below) with relevant information for each project.
In
addition, the Consultant should provide a descriptive summary of the percentage
of conflict incidents at a specific distance from the GEF project location.
Key deliverable (s): Tables/charts and
maps that clearly depict which GEF-supported projects are most closely affected
by conflict in terms of spatial proximity and a short written description of
the main conflicts occurring within or near GEF projects, as well as tables
such as the example above.
Tier Three – Project Level
Analysis
Based
on the results from the Tier One and Two analyses, select 5 – 10 GEF-supported
projects for in-depth analysis based using project documentation found in the
Project Management Information System (PMIS) database.
Projects
should be selected based on several criteria including:
a)
Large
number of conflicts over a prolonged period of time, including during the
project period.
b)
Project
should be completed with terminal evaluation.
The
STAP Secretariat will assist the Consultant in identifying relevant
project/program examples from the GEF portfolio.
Key deliverable(s): 3-5 page summary of each project that explores
the extent to which conflict was initially listed as a ‘risk’ in the project
identification form (PIF/PFD) and if so, what mitigation measures were put in
place to ensure that the project would not be adversely affected. Conversely,
were there any projects where conflict minimization or cooperation was specifically
intended as a ‘co-benefit’ resulting from specific activities? Were mid-course
corrections made based on the mid-term evaluation? Did conflict or peace impact
the final results of the project? If so, how?
Expectations and Timetable
- To
meet these responsibilities, the Consultant will meet with STAP and other
collaborators to discuss each of the tasks in greater detail including
exchanging information on available data and methods appropriate for each of
the tasks described above.
- The
Consultant is expected to contact and consult with the STAP and other GEF Units
on a regular basis (e.g. weekly) for relevant input during the analysis and
preparation of outputs related to each task under each tier. Skype or
teleconferences will be held at regular intervals to discuss progress, major
findings and any difficulties. Modifications to the details of the report may
be discussed and agreed during these communications.